Quick Hits: Demi-Super Tuesday Edition
Like Bill Murray’s Phil Connors in the 1993 film “Groundhog Day“, this morning we awoke to find ourselves still reliving the same day over and over again. It’s Tuesday, and that means that once again it’s the most important, most pivitol, most heart pounding day of the Democratic primaries of all time. Here are some things to keep in mind as the returns poor in from Pennsylvania.
• Hillary Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee. That ship sailed a long time ago. To win now, she would have to win today by 20% and then keep winning by similarly big margins until June. Thats not going to happen. Her only hope now is to prey that the super delegates decide to go against the popular vote, the number of states won and the pledge delegate count. but thats not happening either. This thing has been over for awhile.
• Barack Obama will not win Pennsylvania. Barack may say that coming within 10 points of her will be a victory, but the simple fact is that he isn’t going to win today. This is almost guaranteed. Everything from demographics, to local politics to geography are stacked against him. Maybe not geography… Everything else though. Keep in mind that this doesn’t change anything I wrote above. I just think it is worth keeping this in mind when people start saying that Hillary’s win in Pennsylvania is proof that Obama isn’t electable, or that his “bitter” remarks sunk him, or that people love ads with Osama Bin Laden in them…
• Hillary Clinton won’t drop out of the race, ever. Even if Barack does subvert hundreds of years of anit-Obama sentiment in PA and pull out a win today, don’t expect Hillary to concede. The numbers have been insurmountable for awhile. If she hasn’t pulled out yet, why would she pull out now? Of course theories abound as to why this should be. Some people think her best bet is to keep this going on forever and ensure a McCain victory in November. That way she can coast to victory as the change candidate in 2012. This is total bullshit for a number of reasons. Chief among them is that if McCain wins in November, there won’t be a 2012 to have a victory in. Others think that for her to drop out now would be a sign that she is a quitter and a losing loser. Nobody, not even her billionaire backers, would give money to a quitter… or a loser…
Damn… she is fucked.
About The Author - Stirling McLaughlin is an Art Director, Designer and Illustrator in New York City. Stirling enjoys vegan baking, expensive sportswear and mustard and relish sandwiches. Stirling lives in Manhattan with his wife and daughter. - Visit Stirling's site.
If Obama has no hope of winning Pennsylvania.. how is he going to win the general election? Why should we nominate a candidate who can’t beat McCain?
Also, how long did it take you to dig up an especially unflattering photo of Hillary? Come on.
Wait, did you just confuse Clinton and McCain?
Since when does not beating Hillary in a particular state equal him not being able to beat McCain? In fact, every poll that I’ve seen shows Obama fairing much better than Hillary in a head-to-head against McCain.
Oh, and we had that photo on file. We get a ton of use out of it.
I think if he’s outspending Hillary 3-1 in Ohio and Pennsylvania and can’t win those states, we’re in trouble. He’s way behind McCain in Florida polls as well - what is Obama’s map to victory in November that allows for losing OH, PA, and FL?
I don’t see why you can’t pick a normal photo & save the hideous ones for the GOP.
Again, you are assuming that since he “can’t win” in these states against Hillary that he therefore “can’t win” against John McCain. We are talking about two diffrent people, right? You appear to keep lumping them together.
So, If we apply your logic, what is Hillary’s path to the nomination if she can’t win in Mississippi, Texas, Vermont, Maryland, Illinois, Georgia, Alabama, Wisconsin, DC, Virginia, Louisiana, Utah, Missouri, Connecticut, Delaware and South Carolina?
My assumption is that once Hillary is no longer an issue, and the media turns a more critical eye to McCain, you’ll find a number of those hypotheticals will change dramatically. That is, of course, unless Hillary succeeds in bringing the party down with her. I guess we’ll just have to see.
The republicrats are gonna have to vote for Billary. I mean, a woman like that could rebuild America twice using only her legs. Obama outspent her for god’s sake. Unforgivable.
I’m going to break with the general in-bred trash-talking tone here and say, isn’t it just slightly comforting that, at least in The Guardian’s exit polls from this side of the ocean blue, it was the bible-bashers and the gun-toters who opted for Hilary. To wit, come the summer time, we will have a pretty electable candidate who appeals to the middleground whatever the turn out. Reason to smile? Yes? Anyone? Reason to stop bickering with each other and making McCain look better? Anyone? It’s just, I’m worried that by the time I visit again he’ll have convinced everyone that we’ve been at war with Iran for a very long time and it’s spectacular.
Pete, why come you talk all smart? Them some english words you learnted over in Englandia?