Thursday: Pennsylvania blues.
PINKO DAILY BRIEFS: Okay, indulge me for a minute. I’m freaking out. Instead of the roundup today I’m going to lay out an unsubstantiated panic and then you calmly prove me wrong. Deal? Here goes. John McCain’s entire campaign now rests on Pennsylvania. Barack Obama has a huge lead in Pennsylvania. But I have this horrible nagging feeling that Barack Obama is going to lose Pennsylvania.
I know it doesn’t make sense, but Pennsylvania is notoriously hard to poll. It’s a place (like Ohio) where I worry that all of these racial undertones (and “bittergate”) could have an impact. The media will be bored to tears and looking to focus on McCain’s “last stand.” And remember the primary? We thought Obama could pull it out, and the whole trip across state turned into a big mess. Most convincing though are my friends: to a person everyone who has canvassed Pennsylvania or called through phone bank lists has reported some serious racism and some wavering among registered Democrats. Even the Governor, Ed Rendell, has urged Obama to come back and campaign. I know we’re trying to expand the map but if this is the whole ballgame, spend some time!
This piece from Politico today lays out the promise of Pennsylvania for McCain.
My plea to Pinko readers? Spin me. If you’re in Pennsylvania tell me it’s okay! If you’re not, tell me why it should be. Can we all make some calls or spend some time there? I’m going Saturday.
My plea to the Obama campaign, if you’re listening. Come back! Starting the morning of the 30th Barack should do a big rally in Philly. Joe Biden and Michelle Obama should campaign in Pittsburgh. Hilary Clinton and Bob Casey campaign in Erie. Go door to door. Make three caravans. Meet in the middle, in Scranton, November 1st, for the biggest cocksucking rally in the world. Then keep going … Joe and Michelle on to the Philly suburbs then up to New Hampshire to put away McCain there. Hillary go to Florida. Obama on to Ohio, duck into West Virginia and Indiana and then know you held the last ground McCain had a chance attacking you on.
I did find this dispatch from Allentown helpful. And early voting in the rest of the country looks good. What do you think? Elections are stressful!
About The Author - Ben Wyskida is a writer, activist, conscientious hedonist and political communications strategist living in Brooklyn. - Visit Ben's site.
Deep breaths, Daniel-san. If he holds the west coats, northeast, adds the predicted pickups in VA, CO, and NM, and then adds one or two of the several tossups where he leads, like NV or NC, he can still win without PA… but I don’t think he’s going to lose PA. To find a poll where he loses there, one, mind you, you have to go back to mid September and the height of McCain’s post convention bounce. Finally, PA went to Kerry, narrowly, yes, but it went to John fucking Kerry in 2004. And Obama’s no John Kerry. And this isn’t 2004.
Don’t worry, I have this freakout every 20 minutes or so, too.
Sorry, forgot to include keeping the midwestern states where he has a solid lead. Is it wrong that, while it would be nice to win FL and or OH, I kind of want to win without them? Like, “OK, you’ve fucked the country up a couple of times in a row now, so you’re in time out.”
Pete is from PA and already voted absentee. So if my one person PA poll is correct, we will win PA by 100%!
Also, PA isn’t the whole game. It’s McCain’s whole game. And if he magically flipped PA he’d still need to pretty much run the board in the swing states.
Finally, when was the last time PA was a red state? 1988.
I also think there another effect that no one is talking about, sort of the opposite of the Bradley effect. Granted, I have no proof for this, but after the Powell endorsement gave voice to so many concerns that Republicans have, I think many confessed conservatives, who might even say they’re voting McCain, will secretly vote Obama. My grandmother spent decades as a registered and self-described Republican (this was because her husband was a staunch republican) secretly voting for Democrats. I bet she’s not alone this time. It might make polls even more confusing, but seriously, if Kerry could take it, Obama can certainly take it.
Unscientific polling of HS students in my government classes in Hellertown, PA (just south of Bethlehem) shows greater than 60% support for Obama. This is a conservative area and to be truthful I was shocked. I know most of my Seniors can’t vote, but my guess is that they are voting the way the parents will. Don’t worry, PA won’t turn red.
Okay okay I’m feeling better. Rita made me feel better, especially since Rich Lowry and the conservatives are hawking a poll from Nickeloden.com that has Obama only up 2 as proof that the race is narrowing!
Also this made me feel better -
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/Forget_about_PA.html?showall
a rare moment where Jonathan Martin has ever made me feel better.
Look, Ben … John McCain has to keep pretending this election isn’t over. And if he only campaigns in the red states playing defense, it only proves the point that he’s already lost. I remember in 2006 when Phil Angelides spent two months pretending he could still beat Arnold Schwarzenegger, and his campaigning got increasingly pathetic and delusional.
But yeah … you’re nervous because you’re hearing Democrats worry that we could lose Pennsyvlania. Like Ed Rendell … well let me tell you something about Ed Rendell. The guy’s a FUCKING DOUCHEBAG who campaigned for Hillary Clinton. Doesn’t it cross anyone’s mind that the man has his own agenda? Look at all the PA politicians who are nervous, and I bet you that most are people who never liked Obama anyway.
Meanwhile, the New York Times had an article about John McCain contesting Pennsylvania the other day … they quoted US Senator Bob Casey who said we didn’t have anything to worry about … Obama will win the state. Well guess what? Unlike Rendell, Casey endorsed Obama.
Now if you want to freak out, Ben … let’s talk about California’s Proposition 8, which is in danger of passing because (a) Gavin Newsom is a cocky jerk who hasn’t done anything to defeat it, (b) neither has Dianne Feinstein, although we can bet she will blame Gavin the day after the electioin, (c) Google has violated their own advertising policy by allowing these web ads to appear unwillingly on progressive blogs, and (d) the SF Chronicle is on a binge of “look how different San Francisco is from California” and are feeding right into every talking point the “Yes on 8″ campaign is pushing.
Prop 8. The fact that is is close … in California…….. And looking BAD……… Ohmygod, I lose all ability to reason whenever this comes up.
Oh, and one more point about McCain and Pennsylvania … don’t ever trust the Politico. They’re a right-wing anti-progressive elitist Beltway website that masquerades itself as an “objective” news source … and because they’re a web-only publication they want people to think it’s a hip political blog. But don’t be fooled. It’s just the bad guys getting smarter …
I think Rendell is just trying to get some of Obama’s 18 birzillion dollars for Pennsylvania. Can’t blame a guy for that.
I did some door knocking in suburban Pittsburgh last weekend with SEIU (in part because I have the same fears you do about PA). We were in a less-than-affluent area where none of the faces were people of color. There were definitely some folks who will vote Republican until the day they die, and a few McCain supporters with barely concealed racist motivations, but I was pleasantly surprised that the final tally was quite safely on the Obama side.
It’s getting crazy out there… From First Read:
The University of Wisconsin’s Big Ten Battleground polls have Obama up 10 points in Indiana (51%-41%), 13 points in Iowa (52%-39%), 22 in Michigan (58%-36%), 19 in Minnesota (57%-38%), 12 in Ohio (53%-41%), 11 in Pennsylvania (52%-41%), 13 in Wisconsin (53%-40%), and nearly 30 in Obama’s home state of Illinois (61%-32%). Meanwhile, there are new Quinnipiac surveys that show Obama up five points in Florida (49%-44%), 14 in Ohio (52%-38%), and 13 in Pennsylvania (53%-40%). And finally, new CNN/Time surveys find Obama ahead by five points among likely voters in Nevada (51%-46%), four points in North Carolina (51%-47%), four in Ohio (50%-46%), and 10 points in Virginia (54%-44%).